KEY MESSAGES ON RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE As Of 15 July (142nd Day Of War)

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KEY MESSAGES ON RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE

As Of 15 July

(142nd Day Of War)

1. WAR SITUATION

  • Kremlin’s aggressive and expansionist agenda in Ukraine remains in force: on 11 July, President Putin extended by his Decree a simplified procedure for granting Russian citizenship to all citizens of Ukraine. We strongly condemn this decision, which continues Russia’s course towards seizing Ukraine’s territory, destroying Ukrainian State, and assimilating Ukrainian nation;
  • Russia’s offensives in Ukraine have largely stalled, but limited ground assaults combined with heavy shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes continue along the front line. It became clear that Kremlin’s plans in Ukraine would fail;
  • Russia retains a significant numerical superiority, especially in artillery. At the same time, Ukrainian defenders make effective use of modern high-precision weapons provided by Western partners, destroying in particular Russia’s logistic bases and command centres;
  • Faced with heavy losses (38,000 killed as of 15 July), Russia continues hidden mobilization. The Kremlin has ordered Russian regions to form “volunteer” battalions to be sent to Ukraine;
  • Realizing that it will not win the war on the battlefield, Russia has resorted to the state terrorism. Massive Russian missile attacks (Kremenchuk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Chasiv Yar, Serhiivka, Vinnytsia) kill dozens of civilians far away from the front line. Since 24 February, Russia committed 17,314 attacks against civilian targets and only nearly 300 against the military ones (as of 14 July). These deliberate terrorist acts again demonstrate the urgent need to provide Ukraine with powerful and effective anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems;
  • Only Ukraine and its people will decide when and how the war will end and the peace with Russia will be reached. 89% of Ukrainian citizens believe that the war must end with complete liberation of Ukraine’s territory within the internationally recognized borders;
  • Russia understands only the language of force. If Ukraine loses on the battlefield, all democratic countries will lose. Support to Ukraine is the best investment into European and world security. The NATO Madrid Summit has clearly defined Russia in its Declaration as the most significant and direct threat to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area;
  • The Russian State Duma adopted the law that will allow the Russian government to oversee and regulate labor relations in Russian enterprises (both state and privately-owned), enabling timely supplies for Russian military operations. Russia remains focused on war, not diplomacy;
  • We need to be ready for a long-term fight. We must not allow Kremlin to use its propaganda and growing “war fatigue” to weaken the support provided to Ukraine. It is important that our partners share this approach: at the G7 Summit, the leaders have stated that G7 “will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes”;
  • We want to liberate all the occupied territories (currently, nearly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory with >2,600 settlements). No ceasefire, demilitarization or disengagement would be appropriate: we do not want to establish another “frozen conflict” or give Russia a respite for preparation for the next invasion;
  • In the Luhansk region, Ukrainian troops fulfilled their task of delivering maximum losses to the occupier forces and withdrew to save their lives;
  • Supplies of modern, high-precision and efficient NATO weapons and ammunition must be accelerated. The sooner we receive at least parity in heavy arms with Russia, the more lives of Ukrainian military and civilians will be saved and the faster the war will end;
  • The population of the Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine continues to fiercely resist the occupation. Ukrainian citizens do not accept the so-called “Russian world”, which brings only deaths, destruction and fear. It is no surprise that the occupation authorities in southern regions of Ukraine remain unable until now to create even a false sense of normal life, and unable to organize the staged shows on the so-called “referendums”;
  • Russia does not stop its efforts to draw Belarus military forces directly into the war. Belarus extended the ban on flights along the border with Ukraine until 7 October, indicating that the missile attacks from its territory against Ukraine will continue;
  • Given all the crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine, continuing negotiations with Russia is currently impossible. Only when we deliver devastating blows to the occupier troops on the battlefield and Kremlin realizes that it would not win this war, Ukraine will have negotiating position strong enough to engage into substantial talks;
  • NATO membership would be the best security guarantee for Ukraine. We will not deviate from this path. Until that happens, Ukraine needs effective and legally binding security guarantees, which would prevent Russia’s aggression.

2. HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

  • Russian troops in Ukraine commit numerous war crimes, such as attacks and bombings of civilian objects, premeditated and mass killings, use of prohibited weapons, rape and other forms of sexual violence, torture and inhuman treatment, illegal movement and deportation;
  • Russia’s public statements that its attacks are directed only at military targets are fake: Russian troops continue destroying Ukraine with indiscriminate missile strikes and heavy artillery, regularly resorting to the scorched-earth tactics. Dozens of thousands of civilians were killed and wounded;
  • Ukrainian law enforcement agencies registered damage or destruction of >27,600 civilian infrastructure facilities, including about 22,000 residential buildings and houses, roads and bridges, >1,400 educational and >230 medical institutions, >2,400 water and electricity networks, more than 300 cultural and religious sites. These numbers do not include the occupied territories to which we do not have access. The real level of destruction is much higher. According to the preliminary assessments by regional military administrations, as of June, the total number of damaged or destructed residential buildings is close to 121,000, including >107,000 of private houses and >13,000 of apartment buildings. Vast areas are mined;
  • The worst humanitarian situation remains in the localities along the front line and in those occupied by Russia. The city of Mariupol was almost entirely destroyed by Russian attacks, with dozens of thousands of casualties and forceful deportations by the Russian occupiers. Similar situation is now in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. The cities of Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolayiv, border settlements of Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and other cities and villages of Ukraine also suffer from shelling. The situation is getting worse as active military actions are continuing;
  • In the temporarily occupied territories, looting, tortures, willful killings and abductions are widespread. Russia appoints its occupation administration, imposes Russian passports, forcibly relocates Ukrainian women and children to Russia and Belarus, and recruits Ukrainian men into the Russian armed forces;
  • Education in the Russian language and according to the Russian standards is being introduced in the newly occupied territories. In some occupied regions, it is forbidden not only to teach in Ukrainian, but also to communicate in Ukrainian. Ukrainian educators who refuse to cooperate with the occupation authorities are severely persecuted;
  • In the newly occupied territories, Russia took control over the television and radio transmission centers (towers) and terminated Ukrainian TV and radio broadcasting. Instead, broadcasting of Russian and Crimea television and radio is ensured to use them for disinformation and propaganda. Russia also illegally uses Ukrainian radio frequency resource for these purposes;
  • By jamming Ukrainian cellular communication and damaging telecommunications infrastructure, occupying forces are replacing Ukrainian mobile operators by those controlled by Russia, imposing at the same time Russian legislative norms on the provision of mobile services;
  • Internet and fixed telephony services provided earlier by JSC “Ukrtelecom” were stopped in the Kherson region. This has been used to reconnect telecommunications infrastructure of the region to the networks of the occupied Crimea and Russia;
  • More than 12 mln Ukrainian citizens fled their homes. More than 5 mln of them (out of them about 900 000 children) left abroad. Nearly 8 mln became IDPs. To support them, the Government of Ukraine launched the assistance programs for accommodation, new jobs and financial support for the initial period after relocation. We would appreciate any contributions by our partners to resolving the problem of accommodation for IDPs: the Government of Ukraine cannot cover all needs on its own;
  • Nearly 0.5 mln (according to the official Russian information – over 1.5 mln. people) were deported by Russia to its territory or to the occupied parts of Donbas. Almost 300 000 Ukrainians were rescued through the humanitarian corridors.

3. ECONOMIC SITUATION

  • Russia seeks to destroy Ukraine’s economy, to make us a “failed state”, which would not be able to resist its pressure and influence. Every next day of the war makes the situation even worse;
  • The GDP of Ukraine is expected to drop by 1/3 in 2022. Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed up to 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure at a cost of 100 bln USD. The overall infrastructure damage, and lost profits and investments constitute 750 bln USD;
  • The Government of Ukraine is making every effort to keep Ukraine’s economy afloat (supporting relocation from the war zone, cutting red tape, launching lending programs for business, finding accommodation and new jobs for IDPs). In the liberated areas, critical infrastructure and residential areas are restored;
  • Reconstruction of Ukraine is a joint task of the entire democratic world and the greatest possible contribution to maintaining global peace. We are grateful to the countries ready to take patronage over Ukraine’s regions, cities or industries affected by the war;
  • At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, we have presented our national Reconstruction Plan. In the short term, we need 17.4 bln USD to reconstruct the social infrastructure in the liberated territories (Fast Recovery Plan of Ukraine);
  • The generous financial (11 bln USD as of 5 July) and technical international assistance is warmly welcomed. This is a contribution of our partners to their own security, as defending Ukraine prevents Russia from bringing new wars and crises. Grants are a priority, as Ukraine should not bear the increased debt burden being in defensive war;
  • Trade, transport and energy liberalization and increasing Ukraine’s export is a critical element of post-war recovery. We expect the decisions taken in this regard by EU, UK, Canada, US and Australia to remain in place after the end of the war;
  • Russia must fully pay for its crimes: its confiscated assets around the world should become the main source of financing Ukraine’s economic recovery. Such recovery must start already now, without waiting for the end of the war;
  • The UN Food and Agriculture Organization made it clear that contrary to Russian claims, the sanctions imposed by the EU and other countries are not responsible for growing food insecurity and malnutrition, as they exclude both food and fertilizers. It is the unjustified Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, especially the destruction of the logistics infrastructure of Ukraine as well as the blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports that is exacerbating an already tight supply situation on world markets;
  • Establishment of an international mission – humanitarian corridor – under the UN auspices, which will take over the functioning of maritime routes for the export of Ukrainian agricultural goods, is under consideration. On 13 July, the first round of negotiations between Ukraine, Turkey, Russia and the UN took place in Istanbul;
  • We expect all countries to refrain from buying food stolen by Russia from the occupied parts of Ukraine. The bulk carriers under mostly Russian and Syrian flags are used to transport such food from the occupied Ukrainian seaports of Sevastopol and Berdiansk.

4. RUSSIA’S RESPONSIBILITY

  • Russian troops systematically violate the norms of international humanitarian law and international human rights law in Ukraine: deliberate and indiscriminate attacks on civilians; their use as hostages and human shield; execution and rapes; forceful conscription and kidnapping; attacks on medical personnel and facilities; use of banned weapons etc;
  • In contrast to Russian troops, the Armed Forces of Ukraine comply with the international humanitarian law program, which includes specific trainings: this was acknowledged by the OSCE Moscow Mechanism experts in their Report;
  • Eventually, all Russian perpetrators committing war crimes and crimes against humanity will be held accountable. This is a matter of principle;
  • Ukrainian law enforcement agencies have launched an investigation into 23,370 war crimes and crimes of aggression committed since 24 February. These cases are investigating the killing of >6,300 (including 352 children) and the wounding of 7,800 civilians (including 657 children). These figures, growing daily, do not take into account the occupied territories, to which law enforcement officers do not have access;
  • Russia flagrantly violates international law (including by attacking civil ships, Ukraine’s environment and cultural heritage) and Ukraine’s sovereignty (by introducing its laws, passports, currency, education and phone codes in the occupied parts of Ukraine). Since 2014, Russia has violated ~400 international treaties, to which our countries are parties;
  • Russian military and political leadership must be punished for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. On 14 July, establishment of the Special Tribunal was discussed at the International conference in the Hague;
  • The war launched by Kremlin is widely supported by Russian society, which shares responsibility for it. Russia must be recognized as a state – sponsor of terrorism, and Russian Armed Forces recognized as a terrorist organization;
  • A separate investigation into the crime of genocide is being conducted. The International Criminal Court opened its own full-fledged investigation at the request of 43 countries and joined the joint investigation team of Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland. The EU, US and UK established the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group, which provides assistance to the Ukraine`s Prosecutor General Office in investigation of the Russian crimes in Ukraine. On 1 July, Ukraine submitted its Memorial to the International Court of Justice in the case against Russia under the 1948 UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

5. SANCTIONS

  • Sanctions work: Russia’s GDP in June 2022 decreased by 4.3% (in January 2022, 5.6% growth was registered). Any circumvention of sanctions must be prevented, with no exceptions (such as Nord Stream turbine returned by Canada): they would only provoke Russia to strengthen its blackmailing;
  • Russia’s military machine can be stopped if Kremlin loses revenues from selling fossil fuels. This scope is realistic: June 2022 became the first month in history when the EU has imported more gas via LNG from the US than via pipeline from Russia. Price cap for Russian oil can be used as an additional tool;
  • Restricting Russia’s access to maritime transportation would further undermine its export-oriented economy;
  • We expect the seventh EU package of sanctions to be adopted soon;
  • Strengthening sanctions is also necessary to ensure that Russia is not able to manufacture and maintain high-tech weapons containing many components supplied by NATO countries;
  • Any lifting of sanctions has to be agreed with Ukraine;
  • The legal way to confiscate Russia’s frozen foreign exchange reserves and assets abroad to be further used for compensations to Ukraine and Ukrainian citizens has to be found;
  • Russia must be further economically and politically isolated from the world, losing its levers and capacities to influence decision-making in other countries and international bodies (withdrawal of private business, banning Russian propaganda channels, ending Russia’s influence in politics, business, sports, culture, research and other spheres, introducing visa regime, expelling from international financial institutions, banning Russia’s membership in international organizations and dismissing Russian citizens from their Secretariats).
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