Russia’s Ordeal with Elections
Election excitement, which we have overcome recently in Turkey, is just starting in Russia. In the next five months, Russia will embark on an election marathon. Russian voters will vote for parliamentary election in December 2011, and after 3 months, they will vote for presidential election. Politicians have already got in the mood for the elections. The presidential election of Russian Federation is occupying an important place in the agenda, apart from the parliamentary election. The process and potential results are the objects of interest and curiosity, not only in Russia but also all around the world.
The presidential election of Russia will be followed by both the countries in the region and the global actors all over the world. As a matter of fact, the speculations regarding the process and potential candidates and new Wikileaks documents have been already scattered. Even the international lottery companies started pools on the results. Apart from these developments outside of the country, some enigmas concerning the determination of the candidates continue their existence. The upcoming elections will determine the future of the Putin-Medvedev tandem. In order to predict the possible political atmosphere that will be created after the elections, it is necessary to analyze and make comparison between the eligibilities of the candidates.
Putin or Public Front!
Vladimir Putin, who has built up the politics and provided the political and economical stability, therefore made a hit with the people from all social classes of Russia, is desiring for Kremlin Palace again. As you know, Putin, who had presided two consecutive years, had to leave the presidency to Medvedev because of a constitutional barrier. Finally, with the ending of the constitutional barrier, he is seen among the strongest candidates for the next period for Kremlin.
According to a survey, made by International Research companies in March, Russian people want to see Putin in Kremlin for the next period. In reference to the results of tendency survey, 27% of Russian people want Putin to become candidate for Presidency elections, while 18% of them want Medvedev. On the other hand, the ones who want both politicians are 16% and the ones who want neither of them constitute 25%.
That being the case, Vladimir Putin started to turn the parliamentary elections into a campaign devoted to preparation of the substructure of presidency elections. He is intending to participate in the elections by establishing a ‘’Public Front’’, which will take support from public in parallel with the block formations, and which has been mostly used method in Post-Soviet countries recently. Institutions and organizations over 800 all over the country have already declared their support for ‘’Public Front’’. This is a positive development for Putin because the former president’s success will be determined in direct proportion to the success in parliamentary elections.
Is Medvedev coming to end?
Right here, it is necessary to examine the position of the current president Dmitri Medvedev. Medvedev has been giving the signals of his candidateship for Kremlin for almost a year. No matter which country you analyze, in the X+X presidency models, you can see that the candidates who are in charge at that time, regard being elected again as a matter of prestige. The reason is that, restoring trust for a second time is perceived as a public acclaim for the former performance of the president.
That being the case, Medvedev considers maintaining his governance in Kremlin one more period as an acquired right. However, in task sharing in the context of Putin-Medvedev tandem, it can be seen that the role given to Medvedev has come to and end. We can clearly understand this from the his statement ‘’ I will never stand against Putin as candidate’’ which has created a tremendous impact on Russian press.
We can only explain the fact that the president attached ‘’Putin annotation’’ to his candidateship despite having given the candidateship signals for a year, with the assumption that the system or the conditions forced ‘’the actors to do this’’. One of the issues all observers are all of one mind about is that Russian political elits will never allow such political split which will divide and drive the country into chaos.
Of course, apart from all these factors, we cannot ignore ‘’Putin fact’’ which is folding its charismatic legitimacy among Russian people. We are talking about a social phonemenon in behalf of whom songs have been written and interesting projects have been launched. In this case, the chance of Medvedev is decreasing gradually.
Confirmed Candidate: Zyuganov!
Speaking of presidency elections, it is beneficial to mention Gennady Zyuganov, the confirmed candidate and Communist Party Leader. There has been no time when Zyuganov has not participate in elections after Communism. He competed with Yeltsin, then Putin and lastly with Medvedev. He is the most assertive politician who declared his candidateship months ago. What is holding his hopes up high is the fact that he never leaves secondary position to anyone, even though he cannot be elected. Communist Party, which is still staying as an alive alternative movement, seems to use its credit in the eye of Russian voters till the end.
While the international betting companies is making books between such candidates as Putin, Medvedev, Zyuganov, Zhirinovsky and Prohorov, what cannot be ignored is that in the parliamentary and presidential elections of Russia, the political actors who is pursuing and promising stability, and a bit of justice, the political movements they represent will win.
HAYREDDIN AYDINBAŞ – EXPERT OF STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
http://www.strategicoutlook.org/2011/10/russia%E2%80%99s-ordeal-with-elections-2/
