KEY MESSAGES ON RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE As Of 25 July (152nd Day Of War)

KEY MESSAGES ON RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE

As Of 25 July

(152nd Day Of War)

1. WAR SITUATION

  • Kremlin’s aggressive and expansionist agenda in Ukraine remains in force: on 20 July, Minister Lavrov confessed on Russia’s intentions to grab more Ukrainian territories. Russia rejects diplomacy and focuses on war and terror;
  • Russia’s offensives in Ukraine have largely stalled, although the limited ground assaults combined with heavy shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes continue along the front line, especially in the Donetsk region. It became clear that Kremlin’s plans in Ukraine would fail;
  • Russia retains a significant numerical superiority, especially in artillery. Despite this, Ukrainian defenders managed to stabilize situation at the front, including due to the modern high-precision weapons provided by Western partners, which are effectively used to destroy Russia’s logistic bases, ammunition warehouses and command centres. We have a considerable potential for the advance of our forces on the front, in particular in the Kherson region, and for the infliction of significant new losses on the occupiers;
  • Faced with heavy losses (39,700 killed as of 25 July), Russia continues hidden mobilization. The Kremlin has ordered Russian regions to form “volunteer” battalions to be sent to Ukraine. Russia’s private military companies search for manpower in Belarus and in prisons;
  • Realizing that it will not win the war on the battlefield, Russia has resorted to the state terrorism. Massive Russian missile attacks, >3,000 since the start of war, kill dozens of civilians far away from the front line. These efforts to terrorise Ukrainians and to weaken the resolve of Ukraine’s partners are worthless. To the contrary, they will have the opposite effect;
  • Kremlin’s expectations for the growing “war fatigue” to weaken the support provided to Ukraine are groundless: at the fourth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on 20 July, a number of countries directly stated that there was no fatigue from the war in Ukraine and no such thing would happen in the future;
  • Supplies of modern, high-precision and efficient NATO weapons and ammunition must be accelerated. The sooner we receive at least parity in heavy arms with Russia, the more lives of Ukrainian military and civilians will be saved and the faster the war will end;
  • Russia’s fake allegations of weapons smuggling are aimed at cutting military aid to Ukraine. All our procedures for obtaining, storing and using such weapons are transparent and efficient;
  • Russia is a threat to all democratic nations of the world. So-called “neutral position” taken by some states is only provoking the aggressor to continue its attacks;
  • Russia does not stop its efforts to draw Belarus military forces directly into the war. Russian and Belarussian mass media disseminate fakes on “Ukraine preparing to attack Belarus”;
  • Only Ukraine and its people will decide when and how the war will end and the peace with Russia will be reached. 89% of Ukrainian citizens believe that the war must end with complete liberation of Ukraine’s territory within the internationally recognized borders;
  • Given all the crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine, continuing negotiations with Russia is currently impossible. Only when we deliver devastating blows to the occupier troops on the battlefield and Kremlin realizes that it would not win this war, Ukraine will have negotiating position strong enough to engage into substantial talks;
  • NATO membership would be the best security guarantee for Ukraine. We will not deviate from this path. Until that happens, Ukraine needs effective and legally binding security guarantees, which would prevent Russia’s aggression and allow Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery.

2. TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

  • Russia appoints its occupation administration, imposes Russian passports, recruits Ukrainian men into the Russian armed forces, and takes preparations for fake referenda to justify further annexation of the temporarily occupied territories;
  • To ensure economic integration of the temporarily occupied territories to Russia, the occupation administration imposes Russian ruble, restricts payments in hryvnia, and opens branches of Russian banks, undermining the activity of the Ukrainian banking system;
  • Education in the Russian language and according to the Russian standards is being introduced. In some occupied regions, it is forbidden not only to teach in Ukrainian, but also to communicate in Ukrainian. Ukrainian educators who refuse to cooperate with the occupation authorities are severely persecuted;
  • Russia took control over the television and radio transmission centers (towers) and terminated Ukrainian TV and radio broadcasting. Instead, broadcasting of Russian and Crimea television and radio is ensured to use them for disinformation and propaganda. Russia also illegally uses Ukrainian radio frequency resource for these purposes;
  • By jamming Ukrainian cellular communication and damaging telecommunications infrastructure, occupying forces are replacing Ukrainian mobile operators by those controlled by Russia, imposing at the same time Russian legislative norms on the provision of mobile services;
  • Internet and fixed telephony services provided earlier by JSC “Ukrtelecom” were stopped in the Kherson region. This has been used to reconnect telecommunications infrastructure of the region to the networks of the occupied Crimea and Russia;
  • While destroying civilian infrastructure and blocking evacuation of civilians from the occupied territories to the government-controlled parts of Ukraine, Kremlin practices forcible deportation of Ukrainian citizens to the territory of Russia, Belarus and occupied Crimea. The scale of this crime is impressive: >2,45 mln Ukrainians are reported to have been transferred (forcibly, independently or through Russian evacuation under the pressure of the circumstances) to Russia and Crimea. Almost 300 000 Ukrainians were rescued through the humanitarian corridors;
  • The population of the Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine continues to fiercely resist the occupation. Ukrainian citizens do not accept the so-called “Russian world”, which brings only deaths, destruction and fear. The growing partisan activity undermines Russia’s efforts to institute coherent occupational control;
  • We want to liberate all the occupied territories (currently, nearly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory with 2,621 settlements). No ceasefire, demilitarization or disengagement would be appropriate: we do not want to establish another “frozen conflict” or give Russia a respite for preparation for the next invasion.

3. RUSSIA’S RESPONSIBILITY

  • Ukrainian law enforcement agencies registered damage or destruction of >31,200 civilian infrastructure facilities, including >24,300 residential buildings and houses, roads and bridges, ~1,500 educational and >240 medical institutions, and >3,100 water and electricity Almost 800,000 Ukrainian citizens lost their homes. These numbers do not include the occupied territories to which we do not have access. The real level of destruction is much higher. Vast areas are mined;
  • 129 cultural heritage sites and 149 religious buildings were destructed or damaged by Russia in Ukraine (as of 22 July). This represents a war crime under the 1954 Hague Convention;
  • Russian troops systematically violate the norms of international humanitarian law and international human rights law in Ukraine: deliberate and indiscriminate attacks on civilians; their use as hostages and human shield; execution and rapes; forceful conscription and kidnapping; attacks on medical personnel and facilities; use of banned weapons etc;
  • Russia must strictly adhere to the provisions of international humanitarian law and stop using Ukrainian prisoners of war for its own political purposes;
  • In contrast to Russian troops, the Armed Forces of Ukraine comply with the international humanitarian law program, which includes specific trainings: this was acknowledged by the OSCE Moscow Mechanism experts in their Report;
  • Eventually, all Russian perpetrators committing war crimes and crimes against humanity will be held accountable. This is a matter of principle;
  • Ukrainian law enforcement agencies have launched an investigation into 25,000 war crimes and crimes of aggression committed since 24 February. These cases are investigating the killing of >6,300 (including 358 children) and the wounding of 8,000 civilians (including 686 children). These figures, growing daily, do not take into account the occupied territories, to which law enforcement officers do not have access;
  • Russia flagrantly violates international law (including by attacking civil ships and Ukraine’s environment) and Ukraine’s sovereignty (by introducing its laws, passports, currency, education and phone codes in the occupied parts of Ukraine). Since 2014, Russia has violated ~400 international treaties, to which our countries are parties;
  • We urge every state to consider joining a Special Tribunal initiated by Ukraine to punish Russian military and political leadership for its crime of aggression;
  • The war launched by Kremlin is widely supported by Russian society, which shares responsibility for it. Russia must be legally and politically recognized as a state – sponsor of terrorism, and Russian Armed Forces recognized as a terrorist organization;
  • A separate investigation into the crime of genocide is being conducted. The International Criminal Court opened its own full-fledged investigation at the request of 43 countries and joined the joint investigation team of Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland. The EU, US and UK established the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group, which provides assistance to the Ukraine`s Prosecutor General Office in investigation of the Russian crimes in Ukraine. On 1 July, Ukraine submitted its Memorial to the International Court of Justice in the case against Russia under the 1948 UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. On 21 July, the US Senators presented a draft resolution on recognition of Russia’s actions in Ukraine as genocide.

4. ECONOMIC RECOVERY

  • Russia seeks to destroy Ukraine’s economy, to make us a “failed state”, which would not be able to resist its pressure and influence. Every next day of the war makes the situation even worse;
  • The GDP of Ukraine is expected to drop by 1/3 in 2022. Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed up to 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure at a cost of 100 bln USD. The overall infrastructure damage, and lost profits and investments constitute 750 bln USD;
  • The Government of Ukraine is making every effort to keep Ukraine’s economy afloat (supporting relocation from the war zone, cutting red tape, launching lending programs for business, finding accommodation and new jobs for IDPs). In the liberated areas, critical infrastructure and residential areas are restored;
  • Reconstruction of Ukraine is a joint task of the entire democratic world and the greatest possible contribution to maintaining global peace. We are grateful to the countries ready to take patronage over Ukraine’s regions, cities or industries affected by the war;
  • At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, we have presented our national Reconstruction Plan. In the short term, we need 17.4 bln USD to reconstruct the social infrastructure in the liberated territories, and we call our partners to join these efforts through the Fast Recovery Plan of Ukraine;
  • The generous financial (~13 bln USD as of 21 July) and technical international assistance is warmly welcomed. This is a contribution of our partners to their own security, as defending Ukraine prevents Russia from bringing new wars and crises. Grants are a priority, as Ukraine should not bear the increased debt burden being in defensive war;
  • Trade, transport and energy liberalization and increasing Ukraine’s export is a critical element of post-war recovery. We expect the decisions taken in this regard by EU, UK, Canada, US and Australia to remain in place after the end of the war;
  • Russia must fully pay for its crimes: its confiscated assets around the world should become the main source of financing Ukraine’s economic recovery. Such recovery must start already now, without waiting for the end of the war.

5. FOOD SECURITY

  • The UN Food and Agriculture Organization made it clear that contrary to Russian claims, the sanctions imposed by the EU and other countries are not responsible for growing food insecurity and malnutrition, as they exclude both food and fertilizers. It is the unjustified Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, especially the destruction of the logistics infrastructure of Ukraine as well as the blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports that is exacerbating an already tight supply situation on world markets;
  • On 22 July, the Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian Ports was signed. It is aimed at facilitating the safe navigation for the export of grain and related foodstuffs and fertilizers from the Ports of Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. According to the Initiative, all activities in Ukrainian territorial waters will be under authority and responsibility of Ukraine. We are grateful to the UN and Turkey for mediating this arrangement;
  • Less than 24 hours after the Initiative had been signed, Russia attacked the Port of Odesa with missiles, undermining its commitments. In case the Initiative is not implemented, Kremlin will continue to bear full responsibility for a global food crisis;
  • We expect all countries to refrain from buying food stolen by Russia from the occupied parts of Ukraine. The bulk carriers under mostly Russian and Syrian flags are used to transport such food from the occupied Ukrainian seaports of Sevastopol and Berdiansk.

6. SANCTIONS

  • Sanctions are working, and their effect on Russia’s economy will increase further: Russia’s GDP in June 2022 decreased by 4.3% (in January 2022, 5.6% growth was registered);
  • Any circumvention of sanctions must be prevented, with no exceptions (such as Nord Stream turbine): they would only provoke Russia to strengthen its blackmailing;
  • Full oil and gas embargo on Russia is manageable. Until it is imposed, Russia will keep financing its military machine and undermining the EU unity. Price cap for Russian oil can be used as an additional tool;
  • Restricting Russia’s access to maritime transportation would further undermine its export-oriented economy;
  • Further expansion of individual sanctions on Russian officials and oligarchs is needed to ensure their comprehensive character;
  • We welcome adoption of the seventh EU package of sanctions including ban on import of Russian gold and export of dual-purpose goods and new technologies to Russia. The work on the eighth one must start immediately;
  • Strengthening sanctions is also necessary to ensure that Russia is not able to manufacture and maintain high-tech weapons containing many components supplied by NATO countries. Kremlin’s request to Iran to supply its UAVs demonstrates Russia’s weakness in this regard;
  • Any lifting of sanctions has to be agreed with Ukraine;
  • The legal way to confiscate Russia’s frozen foreign exchange reserves and assets abroad to be further used for compensations to Ukraine and Ukrainian citizens has to be found;
  • We need to ensure long-term isolation and containment of Russia to counter its gravest security threat to the whole world.
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