The Saratoga Foundation
Expert Commentary: Circassians Expanding Alliances to Recover Their National Independence
Paul Goble
Never before have Circassians had so many allies in so many places. In part this is because of the special situation the Circassian community finds itself in and the enormous work Circassian activists have conducted in reaching out to countries and nations on their own; and in part, it reflects changes in the international since Putin launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine and resulting Western recognition that his actions are the product of the fact that Russia remains an empire.
Both these factors give the Circassians enormous new opportunities to press their cause, opportunities greater than at any time since they were expelled from their homeland in 1864 in an act of genocide by the Russian Empire. And the Circassians themselves, recognizing this new reality, are set to take important additional steps to build on what they have achieved and perhaps achieve their goals faster and with greater geopolitical consequence than many now imagine.
For many around the world, the Circassians and their troubled history first came to their attention a decade ago at the time of Putin’s Sochi Olympics, a competition that the Kremlin staged on what had been the site of the expulsion of the Circassians at the end of their more than a century-long fight against Russian expansion. After the Olympiad, Putin staged his Anschluss of Crimea and occupation of some of eastern Ukraine; And the Circassians and their concerns receded from public view at least in the West. As a result, most in the West have missed what the Circassians have been doing since that time and the allies they have acquired both among the peoples within the current borders of the Russian Federation and in countries beyond them, most prominently Ukraine and Turkey.
Even before Sochi, the Circassians were inclined to seek allies, a reflection of the fact that the Soviets divided them up not only among several republics, including the binational ones, but also in terms of the identities Moscow used to weaken their collective influence and of the perhaps even more important fact that there are ten times more Circassians in the diaspora – more than seven million in all – than in the homeland – 700,000 – divided among numerous countries and speaking a variety of languages.
Consequently, to push their cause, they have had first to cooperate with one another and second to work with other nations and governments if they were to have any chance of success. The organizations they created represented the first success, and the Republic of Georgia’s decision in 2011, even before Sochi, to recognize the Russian expulsion of the Circassians as a genocide represented the second.
The Circassians have made significant progress not only in holding their diaspora population together and linking it via the Internet and other means to the Circassian community in the North Caucasus homeland but also in reaching out to various non-Russian republics and predominantly Russian regions within the current borders of the Russian Federation. The first of these alliances means that when Moscow puts pressure on one that has the effect of radicalizing the other; and the second means that the Circassians are poised to be a major force in the post-imperial transition. Indeed, it is fair to say that the Circassians today are playing a role analogous to the one that the three Baltic republics, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, played at the end of Soviet times.
And the Circassians now appear on the cusp of taking the next step by creating both an assembly with representatives of major diaspora and homeland groups and even on the basis of that body a government in exile that would speak for Circassian aspirations and become the basis for a restored Circassia. That idea was floated at the end of last month at the Second International Conference of Independent Circassia and appears to have the momentum to become a reality. At the same time, Circassians have reached out to Ukraine which has shown itself a willing partner in supporting the North Caucasian nation’s aspiration and to Turkey, the country which has the largest Circassian diaspora, which is increasingly moving in the same direction.
Not surprisingly, Moscow is both outraged and alarmed; and one measure of the Circassian successes in this regard are Russian repression against Circassians in the North Caucasus and the activities of its special services in penetrating, disrupting and duplicating diaspora groups so as to disorder the Circassians and their work. These latter efforts, however, have also prove counterproductive: the Circassians see what is going on and are becoming yet more radical as a result. Indeed, the combination of outside support for the Circassian cause and Russian efforts to destroy it may now mean that the push for the recovery of Circassian independence, long ignored or dismissed in the West, may mean that a restored Circassia may be among the very first of the non-Russian areas of the current Russian Federation to break away from Moscow.
If that happens, it will have enormous consequences for the geopolitics of Eurasia. A rump Russia will be cut off from the Caucasus, and Turkish and Ukrainian influence will increase not only in the Trans-Caucasus where it is already strong but across the North Caucasus as well, causing national movements there to radicalize and pursue independence on their own. And because that is a real possibility, this prospect may force Moscow to try to stop it, possibly by pulling forces out of Ukraine in the hopes of being able to hold the current inner empire together. That is unlikely to prove a successful tactic. Indeed, to the extent that it becomes obvious that that is what the Kremlin is trying, it will certainly backfire as more and more parts of the current Russian Federation conclude that Moscow can no longer hold everything and decide that they will be among those it will have to let go.
For those who have ignored the Circassian movement over the last decade, that will come as a surprise, but for those who have been paying attention to it, it won’t – and that is the best possible argument why those concerned about the future of Eurasia as a whole must pay attention to what the Circassians both within the Russian Federation and outside its current borders are doing as well as to how Moscow is reacting.
https://www.saratoga-foundation.org/p/expert-commentary-circassians-expanding
