Framing Colonial Russia’s Political Trajectory
Adel Bashqawi
June 20, 2025
It is essential to observe and evaluate the factors shaping human outcomes—outcomes often determined by reckless decisions and destabilizing events. In light of Russia’s continued pursuit of dangerous and uncalculated geopolitical ventures, it is evident that its colonial expansionist policies carry far-reaching consequences for neighboring nations and regions. These impacts persist regardless of the risks involved. Accordingly, effective risk management becomes key to assessing any country’s long-term stability and the repercussions these policies have on peoples, nations, and occupied territories.
History Repeats Itself
History tends to echo itself—especially when those in power perpetuate systemic violations over generations. In Russia’s case, successive regimes have committed rights abuses under an enduring imperial framework. Despite this well-documented past, there are still those who excuse or even defend such conduct, disregarding the voices that have denounced genocide and atrocities.
Albert Einstein once remarked, “The distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.”[^1] This reflection is echoed in the historical cycles of oppression and resource exploitation that characterize colonialism. Greed, prejudice, and imperial ambition fuel these ongoing patterns. Similarly, George Bernard Shaw’s words underline the cyclicality of history: “We learn from history that we learn nothing from history.”[^2] These quotations remind us that colonial oppression is not a relic of the past—it is a persistent force shaping the present.
A Telling Reflection of Russia’s Political Course
Russia’s actions—particularly in Ukraine—demonstrate familiar colonial behavior aimed at dominating the homelands of others. These actions come at a time when the regime’s political infrastructure is more fragile than it has been in decades. The trajectory reflects a declining, crisis-prone state.
Here is a summary of the compounding factors:
- Economic pressures due to falling oil prices have reduced state revenues.
- The costs of the war in Ukraine continue to rise.
- Western sanctions have weakened the economy and triggered growing dissatisfaction, especially among business elites.
- Ongoing military setbacks since February 2022 have undermined Kremlin authority.
- The Wagner Group mutiny in June 2023, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, revealed cracks in military control.
- Internal divisions and elite fractures within the Kremlin are becoming more visible.
- Repression of dissent has intensified.
- Mass protests have been forcefully suppressed, leading to underground activism and regional opposition movements.
- Separatist movements advocating for freedom and self-determination have gained traction.
- The war has been used to justify authoritarianism and fuel nationalist and racist sentiment against subjugated ethnic groups.
Controlled Elections, Constitutional Amendments, and Centralization of Power
- Moscow’s grip on power has tightened significantly.
- Elections, referendums, and constitutional amendments have been held with predetermined outcomes.
- Presidential powers have been expanded.
- Central authority over regional and local governments has increased.
- Judicial independence has diminished.
- In July 2020, amendments enabled Vladimir Putin to remain in office beyond 2024, potentially until 2036.
- Legal provisions were introduced to guarantee his protection should he choose to step down.
- That same referendum also amended Article 68 of the Constitution, declaring Russian the language of the “state-forming nation.” As a result, the national languages of other peoples have been relegated to secondary status.
Framing Colonial Russia’s Political Trajectory
Conclusion
There continue to be sweeping negative transformations under the Kremlin’s control. While the system shows signs of strain, and cracks in its foundation are increasingly evident, meaningful change remains uncertain. However, if the economic decline accelerates and elite disunity grows, the speed and scope of political transformation may intensify.
[^1]: Einstein quote source [^2]: Shaw quote source
