KEY MESSAGES ON RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE As Of 30 August (188th Day Of War)

KEY MESSAGES ON RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE

As Of 30 August

(188^th Day Of War)

1. WAR SITUATION

More than six months after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion into Ukraine, Russian forces are now focused on holding their positions and preventing Ukraine’s counterattacks. The front line is more or less stable, with the exception of Kherson region, in which on 29 August Ukrainian forces started a counteroffensive operation. Ukrainian defenders target Russia’s logistical supply lines, ammunition depots and command centers, severely undermining its capacities to continue the war;
Russia continues relying upon its numerical superiority: on 25 August, President Putin signed the decree to increase the nominal end strength of the Russian army by 137,000 personnel, which will now constitute 2,04 mln people. Russia’s numbers are counterbalanced by the bravery of Ukrainian defenders and efficient high-precision weapons provided by Western partners. 92% Ukrainians are convinced that Ukraine will win the war;
Ukraine will win the war because we fight for our freedom and our state: Ukrainian people fully support our defenders. Russian soldiers, to the contrary, are unmotivated. Faced with rapidly mounting losses (47,550 killed as of 30 August), Russia continues covert mobilization, including by coercing conscripts concluding their mandatory service into signing military contracts. Russian regions, in order to keep sending “volunteers” to the war, are forced to constantly raise financial incentives. Russia’s private military companies search for manpower in Belarus and in prisons. In the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, forceful mobilization is ongoing;
Realizing that it will not be able to seize any new territories in Ukraine, Kremlin has reinvigorated its rhetoric on the need to hold peace negotiations on its terms. In order to push Ukraine to the negotiation table and make us accept Russia’s demands, Russian troops continue their acts of state terrorism by delivering missile attacks killing dozens of civilians throughout Ukraine;
We have no trust towards Russia: any peace negotiations would be possible only after withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. Any compromises with Kremlin will lead to a new bloody war already in European homes. It is necessary to stop the Russia once and for all, to reliably guarantee European and global security;
Following Russia’s shelling, on 25 August the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant disconnected twice from the power grid for the first time in its history, which put Ukraine and whole Europe one step away from a nuclear disaster. On 26 August, Russia blocked consensus on a final document at the conclusion of the Tenth Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, refusing to acknowledge in it the grave radiological risk at the Plant;
Russian troops must immediately and unconditionally be withdrawn from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Radiation has no borders. Nuclear power plants must not be used for military purposes. The IAEA mission is heading to the Plant to address nuclear security threats caused by Russia’s actions, and we expect Russia not to impede the mission’s access to the Plant. Russia’s nuclear industry must be sanctioned to prevent a precedent for other terrorists;
Russia’s efforts to terrorise Ukrainians and to weaken the resolve of Ukraine’s partners will only have the opposite effect. Only Ukraine and its people will decide when and how the war will end and the peace with Russia will be reached. 89% of Ukrainian citizens believe that the war must end with complete liberation of Ukraine’s territory within the internationally recognized borders. This would also be a safeguard against any further war;
Russia has intensified its energy blackmailing, decreasing gas supplies to Europe on the eve of heating season. The Kremlin wants to provoke “war weariness” in Europe with its actions and weaken support for Ukraine. The active participation of European countries in the Crimean platform, the increase in military support and the clear statements of European leaders indicate that this plan of the Kremlin has failed;
Russia’s fake allegations of weapons smuggling are aimed at cutting military aid to Ukraine. They fail to deliver results: such aid is only growing;
Supplies of modern, high-precision and efficient NATO weapons and ammunition must be accelerated. The sooner we receive at least parity in heavy arms with Russia, the more lives of Ukrainian military and civilians will be saved and the faster the war will end;
Russia does not stop its efforts to draw Belarus military forces directly into the war. Russian and Belarussian mass media disseminate fakes on “Ukraine preparing to attack Belarus”;
Russia’s war against Ukraine demonstrated that global security architecture did not work. NATO membership would be the best security guarantee for Ukraine. We will not deviate from this path: 72% of Ukrainians support joining NATO. Until that happens, Ukraine needs effective and legally binding security guarantees, which would prevent Russia’s aggression and allow Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery. The international working group is about to complete the work on a document with recommendations on such security guarantees for Ukraine;
Russia today is a global threat to the security, stability, and well-being of dozens of countries. The international community must consolidate its efforts and give a decisive response. Otherwise, millions of people on different continents, thousands of kilometers from Russia, will become hostages and victims of Moscow. Those who do not want to put pressure on Russia are inviting murderers and robbers to their own homes, bringing war closer to their borders.

2. TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nearly 21% of Ukraine’s territory with more than 2,600 settlements are occupied by Russia. In the recently occupied areas, Russia reproduces the same patterns it has been using in Crimea and parts of Donbas since 2014: appoints occupation administration, imposes Russian passports, and recruits Ukrainian men into the Russian armed forces;
Russia is trying to politically and economically annex the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. These attempts only create the illusion of Russia’s presence. They will not prevent the counteroffensive of Ukrainian forces. De-occupation is inevitable: it is only a matter of time;
Kremlin takes preparations for fake referenda to legalize occupation and justify further annexation of the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, in particular by collecting civilians’ personal data. Setting conditions for the fake referenda remains so problematic that the occupation authorities have even seemingly abandoned plans to hold them on 11 September. Ukrainian citizens refrain from receiving Russian passports and continue leaving the occupied areas. Fake “voting from home” and voting by Internet” are planned, as local residents do not support Russia’s occupation. If the occupiers follow the path of holding fake referenda, any possibility of peaceful negotiations will be closed;
To ensure economic integration of the temporarily occupied territories to Russia, the occupation administration imposes Russian ruble, restricts payments in Ukrainian hryvnia threatening to punish those who continue using it, opens branches of Russian banks, undermining the activity of the Ukrainian banking system, and demands local business to re-register and pay taxes under Russian laws, threatening otherwise to expropriate business and land plots. The occupiers have also started issuing Russian-model car license plates and driver’s licenses;
Education in Russian and according to the Russian standards is being introduced, as a part of wider brainwashing campaign aimed at strengthening occupational control. Faced with resistance from parents and school officials, the occupation authorities offer money for enrolling children in Russian-run schools and intimidate parents and educators refusing to cooperate;
Russia took control over the television and radio transmission centers (towers) and terminated Ukrainian TV and radio broadcasting, replacing it with Russian and Crimean ones. By jamming Ukrainian cellular communication and damaging telecommunications infrastructure, occupying forces are replacing Ukrainian mobile operators by those controlled by Russia. In addition, internet and fixed telephony services provided earlier by JSC “Ukrtelecom” were stopped in the Kherson region, and the entire infrastructure of the region was reconnected to the networks of the occupied Crimea and Russia;
While destroying civilian infrastructure and blocking evacuation of civilians from the occupied territories to the government-controlled parts of Ukraine, Kremlin practices forcible deportation of Ukrainian citizens to the territory of Russia, Belarus and occupied Crimea. The scale of this crime is impressive: >2,45 mln Ukrainians are reported to have been transferred (forcibly, independently or through Russian evacuation under the pressure of the circumstances) from southern and eastern regions of Ukraine to Russia and Crimea. Only ~16,000 deported citizens were able to return to Ukraine from Russia. Children from the occupied territories are transferred to Russia and illegally given up for adoption;
Kidnappings and abductions are increasingly taking place in the occupied territories. Local residents are subjected to the so-called “filtration camps”, in which families are separated, and those who are deemed “unreliable” disappear. We expect international organizations to do everything possible to gain access to such places of detention of Ukrainian citizens and force Russia to comply with the relevant conventions;
Forcible deportation from the occupied territories is accompanied by financial incentives for those citizens of Ukraine who fled from the war zone to Russia. On 27 August, President Putin signed two decrees offering social payments and the right to work in Russia without a permit to citizens of Ukraine after mandatory fingerprint registration and medical examination. These decrees are aimed in particular at legitimizing “filtration” procedures and providing propaganda pictures for Russia-controlled media;
The population of the Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine continues to fiercely resist the occupation with acts of civil disobedience and intensifying partisan activity, undermining Russia’s efforts to institute coherent occupational control. Kremlin is forced to bring its citizens and officials from Russian regions to ensure fulfilment even of the basic tasks;
We will liberate all the occupied territories. No ceasefire, demilitarization or disengagement would be appropriate: we do not want to establish another “frozen conflict” or give Russia a respite for preparation for the next invasion.

3. RUSSIA’S RESPONSIBILITY

Russia uses artillery and missiles (nearly 3,500 since 24 February) to target Ukraine. Ukrainian law enforcement agencies registered damage or destruction of 40,285 civilian infrastructure facilities, including 31,631 residential buildings and houses, roads and bridges, 1,676 educational and 288 medical institutions, 301 cultural and 76 religious buildings, and 3,687 water and electricity Almost 800,000 Ukrainian citizens lost their homes. These numbers do not include the occupied territories to which we do not have access. The real level of destruction is much higher. Vast areas are mined;
Russian troops systematically violate the norms of international humanitarian law and international human rights law in Ukraine: deliberate and indiscriminate attacks on civilians; their use as hostages and human shield; execution and rapes; forceful conscription and kidnapping; attacks on medical personnel and facilities; use of banned weapons etc;
We severely condemn preparation for show trials and potential executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war from “Azovstal” conducted by the Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol. Russia must strictly adhere to the provisions of international humanitarian law and stop using Ukrainian prisoners of war for its own political purposes. If the show trial takes place, this will mean crossing a red line: no further negotiations with Russia would be possible;
On 29 July, Russia committed a cynical terrorist act, killing >50 Ukrainian prisoners of war by explosion on the territory of the former penal colony of the village of Olenivka. Many documented evidences prove the planned nature of this crime. On 18 August, President of Ukraine and UN Secretary General agreed during their meeting in Lviv on the need to send a fact-finding mission to Olenivka as soon as possible. Russia must ensure access of this mission;
Eventually, all Russian perpetrators committing war crimes and crimes against humanity will be held accountable. This is a matter of principle. Ukrainian law enforcement agencies have launched an investigation into 30,792 war crimes and crimes of aggression committed since 24 February. These cases are investigating the killing of 6,953 (including 379 children) and the wounding of 9,243 civilians (including 735 children). These figures, growing daily, do not take into account the occupied territories, to which law enforcement officers do not have access;
We urge every state to consider joining a Special Tribunal initiated by Ukraine to punish Russian military and political leadership for its crime of aggression;
The war launched by Kremlin is widely supported by Russian society, which shares responsibility for it. We call on all EU and G7 states to stop issuing visas for Russian citizens, which would be a fair decision. For those who really need protection from being persecuted in Russia, there exist well-known legal mechanisms: refugee status, asylum requests etc;
Russia must be legally and politically recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism, and Russian Armed Forces recognized as a terrorist organization. Such decision would further isolate Russia, cutting political and economic ties it would otherwise maintain;
Russia’s war against Ukraine is also a campaign of genocide, aimed at annihilating Ukrainians as a nation. The investigations into the crime of genocide are being conducted.

4. ECONOMIC RECOVERY

By deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure and terrorizing population, Russia seeks to destroy Ukraine’s economy, to make us a “failed state”, which would not be able to resist its pressure and influence. Every next day of the war makes the situation even worse. Ukraine’s economic recovery must take place even during the war, before it ends;
In 2022, the GDP of Ukraine is expected to drop by 35–40%, and inflation forecast is 31%. Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed up to 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure at a cost of 100 bln USD. The overall losses including lost profits and investments constitute 750 bln USD;
The Government of Ukraine is making every effort to keep Ukraine’s economy afloat (supporting relocation from the war zone, cutting red tape, launching lending programs for business, finding accommodation and new jobs for IDPs). In the liberated areas, critical infrastructure and residential areas are restored;
At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, we presented our national Reconstruction Plan. In the short term, we need 17.4 bln USD to reconstruct social infrastructure in the liberated territories. We call our partners to join these efforts through the Fast Recovery Plan of Ukraine. to allow Ukrainian refugees return to their homes;
Millions of Ukrainians lost their homes and became IDPs. As winter period is approaching, we welcome any assistance with ensuring accommodation for them, such as temporary housing and repairs of the damaged and destroyed infrastructure;
The generous financial and technical international assistance is warmly welcomed. This is a contribution of our partners to their own security, as defending Ukraine prevents Russia from bringing new wars and crises. Maximum economic support for Ukraine is the best investment in the safety and long-term well-being of families in Europe and beyond. This is the best guarantee that war and a severe economic crisis will not come to your homes. Grants are a priority, as Ukraine should not bear the increased debt burden being in defensive war. We look forward to the timely provision of such assistance;
Ukraine’s trade turnover in the first half of 2022 is 3% less than in 2021. Increasing Ukraine’s export, including through the trade, transport and energy liberalization, is a critical element of post-war recovery. We expect the decisions taken in this regard by EU, UK, Canada, US and Australia to remain in place after the end of the war. Ukraine’s electricity is already being exported to the EU, benefitting both Ukraine and European countries.

5. FOOD SECURITY

Ukrainian food export is gradually unblocked following the signing of the Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian Ports on 22 July, after months of Russian blockade of Ukrainian seaports. Less than in one month, 61 vessels with almost 5 mln metric tons of Ukrainian agricultural products departed from Ukrainian ports (as of 30 August);
Even more vessels able to safely export Ukrainian food are needed. We expect Russia to stick to its commitments under the Initiative of 22 July. We are grateful to the UN and Turkey for mediating this arrangement;
Ukraine works with the UN World Food Program to increase the amount of food sent to the countries which need it most, facing real humanitarian disaster. The resumed export of Ukrainian food is already stabilizing global market, decreasing prices and reducing chaos caused by lack of food around the world. In the long run, it would contribute to the complete removal of the food crisis from the global agenda;
We expect all countries to refrain from buying food stolen by Russia from the occupied parts of Ukraine (99 bulk carriers under mostly Russian and Syrian flags were identified to transport it). Whenever vessels with stolen food are identified, they must be banned from entering seaports or detained and arrested by the respective national governments.

6. SANCTIONS

Sanctions are working, and their effect on Russia’s economy will increase further: Russia’s GDP in June 2022 decreased by 4.3% (in January 2022, 5.6% growth was registered). Kremlin conceals real problems in Russia’s economy by withholding key monthly statistics. Russia’s propaganda that sanctions are not effective testifies exactly to the opposite;
Any circumvention of sanctions must be prevented, with no exceptions (such as Nord Stream turbine which proved to be only a pretext for Kremlin’s political decision to limit gas supply to Europe): they would only provoke Russia to strengthen its blackmailing;
As underlined by G7 in its statement of 3 August, Russia is not a reliable energy supplier, and it continues to weaponise its energy exports and use energy as a tool of geopolitical coercion. Ukraine believes that full oil and gas embargo on Russia is manageable, while half-measures are in no way sufficient. Until the embargo is imposed, Russia will keep financing its military machine and undermining the EU unity. Price cap for Russian oil can be used as an additional tool;
Trade ties with Russia should be severed as much as possible, as they are actively used by Kremlin as a tool of pressure. Restricting Russia’s access to maritime transportation would further undermine its export-oriented economy;
Further expansion of individual sanctions on Russian officials and oligarchs is needed to ensure their comprehensive character;
Strengthening sanctions is also necessary to ensure that Russia is not able to manufacture and maintain high-tech weapons containing many components supplied by NATO countries;
Any lifting of sanctions has to be agreed with Ukraine;
The legal way to confiscate Russia’s frozen foreign exchange reserves and assets abroad to be further used for compensations to Ukraine and Ukrainian citizens has to be found. This is an important element of the responsibility that Russia as an aggressor state must bear. In Ukraine, the property belonging to the Russian state (903 objects), sanctioned citizens and companies from Russia, and the assets of Russian banks will be confiscated in favour of Ukraine;
We need to ensure long-term isolation and containment of Russia to counter its gravest security threat to the whole world.